Watan-An influential Israeli scholar is raising alarms over the future of U.S.-Israel relations in the context of the Gaza war and wider geopolitical transformations. In a detailed article published by the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) at Tel Aviv University, former Israeli ambassador to Berlin Shimon Stein explores whether the special relationship between Israel and the United States can withstand mounting internal and external pressures.
Stein identifies three foundational pillars of this relationship—shared democratic values, mutual strategic interests, and support from the American Jewish community—all of which he argues are visibly eroding. He questions whether the alliance can continue to offer strategic value to the U.S. amid such strain.
Quoting Ernest Hemingway’s concept of decline happening “gradually, then suddenly,” Stein likens the October 7 Hamas attack to a long-brewing crisis that suddenly explodes. He warns the U.S.-Israel alliance may follow a similar trajectory, with deepening cracks becoming irreversible if ignored.
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On shared values, Stein notes the increasing divergence between U.S. liberal democratic ideals and Israeli policy, especially under Trump-era shifts and Israel’s close alignment with the Republican Party.
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On strategic interests, he argues that while Israel was once vital during the Cold War, today’s regional threats (like Iran-backed groups) are often more immediate for Israel than the U.S., creating policy friction. He also warns that Israel’s rejection of a two-state solution hinders U.S. ambitions, such as normalizing ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
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On diaspora support, he highlights growing disillusionment among younger American Jews, many of whom distance themselves from Israel, especially amid the Gaza war and bipartisan divides over Israeli policy.
Stein concludes that unless these fractures are addressed, the “special relationship” may give way to a less exceptional, more conditional alliance, reshaped by changing U.S. priorities and global dynamics.
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