Watan-When the UAE announced in July 2023 a historic $51 billion investment in Turkey, the move seemed like a radical shift in economic relations between the two countries. However, two years later, only one deal has been executed, while most other projects remain stalled with little progress. What is happening behind the scenes?
Billion-Dollar Commitments, But No Execution
After the re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the UAE sought to expand its economic influence in Turkey through massive investments in infrastructure, ports, banking, and energy. However, the reality turned out to be different, as most of the announced deals failed to reach actual implementation.
The Turkish economy gradually recovered, and Turkish investors were no longer willing to sell off their assets at low prices. Meanwhile, the UAE relies on a strategy of investing in countries facing financial crises—an approach that did not resonate with Ankara, which refuses to make major concessions to Abu Dhabi.
Stalled Deals: Why Have the Promises Not Been Fulfilled?
Major projects remain on paper, from the failure of a deal to operate a strategic port in western Turkey to the collapse of negotiations over the UAE’s acquisition of one of Turkey’s largest banks. The reasons for the delays and setbacks remain unclear, but analysts believe Erdoğan is unwilling to sell off key economic assets at bargain prices, while Abu Dhabi seeks to secure major gains with minimal investment.
Have the Terms of Negotiation Changed?
Publicly, Ankara insists that economic relations with Abu Dhabi remain strong. However, informed sources suggest that the two sides have yet to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement. Meanwhile, the UAE continues to pour significant investments into Egypt and Europe, raising questions about its commitment to its pledges in Turkey.
Are we witnessing a crisis of trust between Erdoğan and Mohammed bin Zayed? Or does each side have its own economic priorities that could ultimately freeze this historic deal?
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