Is America Headed for Collapse? Jesse McKinnon Warns of a U.S. Decline into Authoritarianism
Political decay, economic isolation, and the militarization of institutions point to early signs of state failure in the U.S., according to a sobering analysis by American writer Jesse McKinnon.
Watan-In a detailed analysis, American writer Jesse McKinnon argues that the United States is already entering a phase resembling the early stages of state collapse. Once considered unthinkable in a wealthy, democratic country, this scenario is becoming increasingly plausible amid accelerating political, economic, and social transformations.
1. Political Legitimacy in Crisis and Institutional Decay
According to McKinnon, states rarely collapse overnight; instead, decline occurs through a gradual erosion of institutions and legitimacy. This process typically begins with targeted attacks on democratic institutions, followed by turning the judiciary and civil service into tools of executive power.
He cites the Trump administration’s politicization of the Department of Justice, purging of watchdog agencies, and hostility toward independent media and civil society—all of which mirror the last years of the Roman Republic before Julius Caesar, and the Weimar Republic’s collapse before Nazi rule.
“Turning security institutions into loyalty-based instruments is a red flag for rising authoritarianism,” McKinnon writes.
2. Manufactured Economic Crisis and Global Isolation
McKinnon describes the economic decline as artificial, stemming from reckless political decisions—notably the imposition of broad tariffs on both allies and adversaries. These sparked a global trade war and triggered the 2025 stock market collapse.
He compares this path to Juan Perón’s self-reliance policies in 1940s Argentina and the U.S. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which worsened the Great Depression.
3. Militarization of the State and Loyalty Tests
McKinnon warns that using security forces for political loyalty tests, firing perceived dissenters, and deploying violence against opposition are hallmarks of authoritarian drift—comparable to the final years of the Soviet Union.
4. Internal Fragmentation and Political Violence
Internally, the U.S. is facing deep polarization, mutual distrust, and growing political violence. Independent journalists are targeted, universities are undermined, and the judiciary is used for political revenge.
McKinnon likens the U.S. trajectory to Chile under Salvador Allende, where the elected government was destabilized from within through violence and economic sabotage.
5. Foreign Policy: Isolationism and Imperial Fantasies
On the global stage, U.S. foreign policy has become dangerously isolationist and expansionist. Presidential calls to annex Canada and Greenland, and illegal resource deals in Ukraine, resemble Mussolini’s colonial ventures in North Africa, which led to diplomatic isolation and economic ruin.
“America’s foreign policy is now dangerously detached from global norms,” McKinnon warns.
6. The State as a Personal Tool of Power
McKinnon concludes that the American state no longer acts as a neutral platform for collective interest but serves the personal ambitions of the ruling elite. He compares this to Yugoslavia in the 1990s, where unresolved internal tensions led to violent disintegration.
7. Is Collapse Inevitable?
Despite the bleak outlook, McKinnon notes that recovery is still possible—but it would require a cohesive opposition and a return to institutional integrity. He references Spain in the 1930s and Greece in the 1940s, where collapse was narrowly avoided, albeit at great cost.
Conclusion: The Clock Is Ticking
In his piece for Common Dreams, McKinnon writes:“State failure is not a sudden event—it’s a prolonged collapse marked by institutional corruption, security politicization, and isolationist delusion.”
He concludes with a warning:“Unless this path is reversed soon, the United States may join the ranks of nations undone by their own internal contradictions.”
