{"id":18436,"date":"2025-06-04T20:36:47","date_gmt":"2025-06-04T20:36:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.watanserb.com\/en\/?p=18436"},"modified":"2025-06-04T20:36:47","modified_gmt":"2025-06-04T20:36:47","slug":"opec-on-the-brink-uae-challenges-saudi-leadership-in-oil-alliance","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.watanserb.com\/en\/2025\/06\/04\/opec-on-the-brink-uae-challenges-saudi-leadership-in-oil-alliance\/","title":{"rendered":"OPEC on the Brink: UAE Challenges Saudi Leadership in Oil Alliance"},"content":{"rendered":"

Watan<\/strong><\/em>-Since its founding more than six decades ago, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has relied on Saudi Arabia as its backbone and stabilizer. But in recent years, particularly with the rise of the UAE\u2019s sweeping ambitions, Abu Dhabi has increasingly behaved like a rule-breaking power within the cartel, seeking to undermine Riyadh\u2019s leadership\u2014perhaps even to dismantle it from within.<\/p>\n

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On May 31, 2025, OPEC+ announced a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July, marking the third consecutive monthly hike. But behind this technical announcement lies a deepening crisis that may threaten the organization\u2019s unity, quietly but persistently driven by the UAE.<\/p>\n

UAE: The Rebellious Member in a Cloak of Discipline<\/h3>\n

As OPEC faces growing pressure from the forecasted peak in global oil demand, Abu Dhabi appears to be preparing to jump ship before it hits the iceberg.<\/p>\n

The UAE\u2014OPEC\u2019s third-largest exporter\u2014has long acted like a defiant member receiving exceptional treatment. While officially claiming compliance with its quota of 2.9 million barrels per day, tanker tracking data suggests that exports alone approach 2.8 million, excluding domestic refining and storage.<\/p>\n

Multiple market sources and even the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimate that the UAE may actually be producing over 3.4 million barrels daily\u2014about half a million barrels over its official quota.<\/p>\n

\"he
Mohammed bin Salman vs. Mohammed bin Zayed<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Dual Accounting and Quiet Collusion<\/h3>\n

What\u2019s remarkable is that this overproduction occurs under a veil of unspoken complicity. Consulting firms used by OPEC for production estimates\u2014most of them profit-driven\u2014maintain client relationships with both Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi\u2019s ADNOC.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, journalists fear losing access to information, preventing public exposure. In this opaque environment, the UAE appears to be writing its own rules and imposing them on others, leveraging the remaining coherence of OPEC to pursue narrow national goals.<\/p>\n

Why Is Saudi Arabia Staying Silent?<\/h3>\n

Why hasn\u2019t Riyadh confronted Abu Dhabi publicly? The answer lies in the fragile internal balance within OPEC. Saudi Arabia fears that direct confrontation could lead the UAE to withdraw from the group\u2014a threat Abu Dhabi already made in 2021.<\/p>\n

Knowing that the UAE\u2019s spare capacity serves as constant leverage, the Saudis are opting for cold, tactical management of the crisis\u2014hoping to avoid open rupture.<\/p>\n

Yet this caution gives Abu Dhabi more room to maneuver, allowing it to position itself as a peer or even alternative to Riyadh in global oil politics. If this dynamic continues, OPEC’s current structure may not survive.<\/p>\n

Abu Dhabi\u2019s Agenda: Beyond Oil<\/h3>\n

What\u2019s more concerning is that the UAE\u2019s actions inside OPEC are not just economic\u2014they reflect a larger political strategy to challenge Saudi leadership regionally and globally.<\/p>\n

From expanding influence in Africa under the guise of aid, to infiltrating U.S. policymaking circles, to massive investments in AI and green energy, Abu Dhabi is pursuing a parallel strategy aimed at becoming the Gulf\u2019s dominant player\u2014even if that means destabilizing the Gulf and Arab order.<\/p>\n

In oil policy, the UAE prefers lower prices and market share gains, since it only needs $50 per barrel to balance its budget, while Saudi Arabia needs about $90 due to its heavy spending on NEOM and mega real estate projects.<\/p>\n

This divergence in fiscal strategy is leading to diverging policies within OPEC\u2014and potentially, to escalation.<\/p>\n

\"Since
On May 31, 2025, OPEC+ announced a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July, marking the third consecutive monthly hike.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Delayed Explosion or Imminent Exit?<\/h3>\n

With disputes over quotas piling up, and Abu Dhabi refusing to cap production despite investing $62 billion in new capacity, its exit from OPEC is becoming increasingly plausible.<\/p>\n

If it happens, it won\u2019t just be a technical shift\u2014it will be a political earthquake that could fracture the oil cartel and pave the way for new alliances beyond its framework.<\/p>\n

Some analysts believe the UAE is deliberately pushing OPEC to the edge, to force a complete rebalancing of production quotas, or to prepare for a new bloc built on different principles. In either case, the endgame is breaking Saudi dominance and redrawing the global oil influence map.<\/p>\n

An Unavoidable Confrontation<\/h3>\n

The rift between Saudi Arabia and the UAE is no longer about technical disagreements on oil quotas. It represents a broader power struggle over leadership and dominance.<\/p>\n

If Abu Dhabi continues on this path, it will not only shatter OPEC’s cohesion, but also threaten the regional arrangements that have stabilized energy markets for decades.<\/p>\n

Riyadh must recognize that silence is no longer an option\u2014and that a decisive confrontation with its \u201crebellious partner\u201d is not a matter of choice, but of time.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/article>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Watan-Since its founding more than six decades ago, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has relied on Saudi Arabia as its backbone and stabilizer. But in recent years, particularly with the rise of the UAE\u2019s sweeping ambitions, Abu Dhabi has increasingly behaved like a rule-breaking power within the cartel, seeking to undermine Riyadh\u2019s …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":18437,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[75,73,71,1376],"class_list":["post-18436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-abu-dhabi","tag-opec","tag-saudi-arabia","tag-the-uae"],"yoast_head":"\nOPEC on the Brink: UAE Challenges Saudi Leadership in Oil Alliance - Watan<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"UAE's increasing defiance within OPEC, marked by production overreach and strategic ambition.. deeper geopolitical rivalry with Saudi Arabia.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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