{"id":18040,"date":"2025-05-27T20:19:32","date_gmt":"2025-05-27T20:19:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.watanserb.com\/en\/?p=18040"},"modified":"2025-05-27T20:19:32","modified_gmt":"2025-05-27T20:19:32","slug":"israels-economy-under-siege-war-in-gaza-triggers-credit-downgrade-and-deepening-financial-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.watanserb.com\/en\/2025\/05\/27\/israels-economy-under-siege-war-in-gaza-triggers-credit-downgrade-and-deepening-financial-crisis\/","title":{"rendered":"Israel’s Economy Under Siege: War in Gaza Triggers Credit Downgrade and Deepening Financial Crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Watan<\/strong><\/em>-Israel\u2019s economy is facing persistent crises as a result of its ongoing assault on the Gaza Strip. Economic experts have voiced growing concern over the war\u2019s financial impact, particularly regarding the soaring defense budget and its consequences on fiscal stability and investment decisions.<\/p>\n

Maxim Revinikov, Israel\u2019s lead credit rating analyst at Standard & Poor\u2019s (S&P), stated at an economic conference in Jerusalem (as reported by Israeli outlet Calcalist) that Israel\u2019s biggest risks are \u201cinstitutional fragility and the risks of war.\u201d He emphasized that institutional resilience is a key factor in determining credit ratings.<\/p>\n

Revinikov noted that they assess budget management, checks and balances between government institutions, and respect for the rule of law. While S&P has already downgraded Israel’s rating, he warned that capital market risk premiums suggest even lower confidence than the agency\u2019s rating reflects.<\/p>\n

He added that the primary issue under review is the duration and uncertainty of the war:\u201cThe war has lasted much longer than expected, and we don\u2019t know how it will end. This introduces significant risks, especially if there\u2019s escalation. A direct war with Iran remains our greatest concern \u2014 though not our base-case scenario.\u201d<\/p>\n

This sustained conflict and unpredictability are why S&P has maintained a negative outlook on Israel\u2019s credit rating.<\/p>\n

Debt Forecasts and Fiscal Deficits<\/h3>\n

Due to the war, S&P has repeatedly raised its projections for Israel\u2019s debt-to-GDP ratio. The agency now forecasts a 6% deficit in 2025 and 5% in 2026\u20132027, while the Bank of Israel projects a smaller 2.9% deficit by 2026.<\/p>\n

Professor Manuel Trajtenberg pointed out:\u201cThe most important economic statement today is Prime Minister Netanyahu\u2019s declaration that Israel aims to eliminate Hamas, occupy Gaza, and stay there indefinitely. With 100,000 reservists \u2014 twice what was budgeted \u2014 this has real economic implications. These aren\u2019t projections; they\u2019re happening now. Is anyone asking what this means long term?\u201d<\/p>\n

Amir Yaron, Governor of the Bank of Israel, warned that inflation may take longer to stabilize.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf inflation slows faster than expected, we could lower interest rates \u2014 but until then, we must maintain tight monetary policy.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Israel
Netanyahu<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The central bank has held its interest rate at 4.5% and urged the government not to introduce policies that might undermine institutional independence or fiscal resilience.<\/p>\n

Yaron stressed the need to reduce disincentives for Arab women and ultra-Orthodox men to enter the workforce, and to balance security spending with investments in infrastructure and education, all while maintaining financial responsibility.<\/p>\n

Finance Ministry Chief Economist Shmuel Abramzon emphasized:\u201cThere must be a balance between higher defense spending, reduced civilian expenditure, and the tax burden. Not everything requires more money \u2014 we also need transparency, oversight, and efficient management of the security sector.\u201d<\/p>\n

Accountant General Yechieli Rotenberg shared a personal anecdote to highlight the disparity:\u201cI visited a girls\u2019 care center that needed just 10,000 shekels. Then I attended a military meeting where billions were discussed. That contrast gave me chills. We\u2019re not saying abandon security \u2014 but it must be managed responsibly.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Watan-Israel\u2019s economy is facing persistent crises as a result of its ongoing assault on the Gaza Strip. Economic experts have voiced growing concern over the war\u2019s financial impact, particularly regarding the soaring defense budget and its consequences on fiscal stability and investment decisions. Maxim Revinikov, Israel\u2019s lead credit rating analyst at Standard & Poor\u2019s (S&P), …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2600,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[5675,903,5676],"class_list":["post-18040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","tag-israels-economy","tag-israeli-war-on-gaza","tag-maxim-revinikov"],"yoast_head":"\nIsrael's Economy Under Siege: War in Gaza Triggers Credit Downgrade and Deepening Financial Crisis - Watan<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The ongoing war on Gaza is taking a heavy toll on Israel\u2019s economy, with rising debt projections, lowered credit ratings,\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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