Ex-IDF General Amos Gilad Warns: Direct Military Rule in Gaza Is a Dangerous Illusion

“Back then, illusions were created about a new reality in Lebanon that would suit Israeli interests. These illusions faded over 18 bloody years and ended in a unilateral withdrawal,” Gilad wrote in Yedioth Ahronoth.

The Fantasy of Control

Gilad acknowledges that direct military rule in Gaza may sound appealing, as it could theoretically allow Israel to defeat Hamas completely. However, he cautions that in practice, such a policy would weaken Israel:

• It would cost billions of shekels annually to maintain a direct military presence.

• Rebuilding the devastated Gaza Strip would require tens of billions more.

• Most dangerously, if Israel doesn’t reach an agreement to end its presence soon, it could doom the fate of Israeli hostages still held in Gaza—both the living and the dead.

Myth of “Another October 7”

Gilad rejects the claim that unless Hamas is eradicated to the last fighter, another October 7-style attack is inevitable:“This claim is baseless. The IDF has dismantled Hamas’s military structures and inflicted serious damage on its senior and junior leadership. Nearly no one remains. Now is the time to translate these military achievements into a political agreement, under American sponsorship, beginning with the urgent release of the hostages.”

The “Humanitarian City” Disaster

Gilad is fiercely critical of Israel’s controversial plan to concentrate Palestinians in a so-called “humanitarian city” in southern Gaza—often compared by critics to a concentration camp.“This plan will be a major political disaster for Israel. Arab countries will distance themselves. Our international standing will further deteriorate. In the end, even Trump may turn his back on us.”

He argues that this move would destroy regional diplomacy, including Trump’s potential peace deals and hopes for a Nobel Prize.

Regional and Global Repercussions

According to Gilad:

• The Arab world—especially Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan—will not accept forced displacement of Palestinians.

• The global community listens to extremist voices in Israel like Smotrich and Ben Gvir, who threaten to expel Palestinians or seize Al-Aqsa. These statements undermine regional stability.

• “The idea that Palestinians would voluntarily relocate into a ‘humanitarian city’ is a dangerous fantasy,” he wrote.

Iran and the U.S. Alliance

Gilad stresses that Israel’s security relies on its strategic alliance with the U.S., particularly via CENTCOM, which proved crucial in the recent clashes with Iran. Israeli success in this regard was achieved thanks to joint efforts between:

• The IDF

• Air Force

• Mossad

• U.S. military intelligence

“But as long as the murderous Iranian regime exists, it will continue trying to destroy Israel. That’s why we need to isolate and weaken Iran and stop it from acquiring nuclear weapons.”

He believes regional alliances are critical in this fight.

Danger from Within: The Haredi Draft Law

On the domestic front, Gilad warns against the ultra-Orthodox (“Haredi”) draft exemption law—mockingly called the “conscription law” in Israeli media.“This collective exemption, combined with the immense burden on reserve and regular soldiers, and the erosion of liberal democratic principles upon which Zionism rests, is a real threat to the country’s future—no less dangerous than the plans for Gaza and the West Bank.”

A Historic Crossroads

“Israel is at a historic crossroads, perhaps more than ever before,” Gilad declares.

“We need courageous decisions. The illusion that the U.S. will always stand by us could trap us and turn out to be false.”

His final call:“Now is the time for a diplomatic breakthrough—not for drowning in the quagmire of Gaza, as we did in Lebanon.”