Why Iran’s Missile Firepower Has Dwindled: Israeli Strikes, U.S. Intel, and Strategic Patience
Despite Its Threats, Iran’s Missile Output Drops Sharply—Experts Cite Israeli Bombing, Foreign Inaction, and Tehran’s Calculated Restraint.
Watan-Iran has repeatedly threatened to launch massive and deadly missile strikes against Israel. Yet, according to Israeli National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi, Iran still possesses thousands of long-range ballistic missiles—so why has the number of actual launches dropped dramatically since Day 5 of the war, reducing to only a few dozen?
One likely explanation is the success of intense Israeli airstrikes, reportedly supported by U.S. and Western intelligence and technology, which may have destroyed nearly half of Iran’s missile platforms—a point some Israeli officials have even boasted about.
As a result, Iran now fires only a limited number of missiles sporadically across Israel. This shift has allowed Israel’s air defense systems to better intercept the projectiles—unlike in the early days of the war when heavy barrages overwhelmed defenses, leading to casualties and severe damage. Among the early targets hit were Haifa’s oil refinery and the prestigious Weizmann Institute in Rehovot, both sustaining major destruction.
Foreign Allies Missing in Action
Iran may also still be waiting for military support from Russia, China, and Pakistan, which so far have offered only verbal support with no visible action. The fall of Iran would be a strategic loss for these countries—yet their silence suggests either limited capacity or unwillingness. Russia, in particular, appears far weaker than its global image, especially after the failure to stabilize Syria or conclude the war in Ukraine.
This geopolitical silence has led Tehran to double down on its doctrine of “strategic patience,” rationing missile fire in the belief—or hope—that the war will be long, and must be turned into a battle of attrition to deter Israel from continuing. While Iran may have ample missile reserves hidden in secure depots, growing U.S. threats of direct involvement may be deterring Tehran from unleashing its full arsenal.
Analysts speculate that Iran is holding back to avoid provoking Donald Trump into joining the war, fearing a devastating U.S. military response. Iran seems to understand that any massive Israeli casualties could tilt U.S. opinion further toward intervention. This reflects Iran’s characteristic blend of ideological commitment and pragmatic calculation—a pattern seen in Hezbollah’s miscalculated restraint during previous Israeli offensives in Lebanon.
Israel’s Interpretation
In Israel, the sharp drop in Iranian missile launches has sparked intense public debate. Is it a tactical maneuver, a sign of calculated restraint, or simply evidence of military failure?
According to a senior Israeli security source quoted by the Hebrew news site Walla, the dramatic decline is due to successful Israeli air raids, particularly in western Iran. The source, speaking anonymously, claimed that 40% of Iran’s surface-to-surface missile batteries have been destroyed.
The official noted that although Iran issues threatening statements every few hours, in reality it has launched only a handful of missiles and drones. For example, Iranian officials promised an “unforgettable strike” just days ago, but ended up firing only 10 missiles that night—followed by 20 more the next morning. These numbers are far below Tehran’s threatening rhetoric and far short of the attacks it once promised to unleash.
