Israel’s Defense Minister Threatens Khamenei Amid Rising Assassination Fears and Iranian Crisis
Katz Warns Iran’s Supreme Leader of Saddam-Like Fate as Israeli Strikes Intensify and Tehran Faces Unprecedented Internal Pressure.
Watan-Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz issued a direct threat to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Tuesday, warning him of a “fate similar to Saddam Hussein” if Tehran continues targeting Israeli civilians.
During a security briefing with top military officials, Katz said in a statement:“I warn the Iranian dictator against continuing to commit war crimes and launch rockets at Israeli civilians. Israel will strike the Iranian dictator wherever he is.”
Khamenei Facing His Toughest Test Yet
Despite surviving decades of crises, Khamenei now faces perhaps the gravest threat to his rule as unprecedented Israeli airstrikes decimate Iran’s military leadership and rattle the very structure of the Islamic Republic.
Since succeeding Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989, Khamenei has led Iran through sanctions, unrest, and global isolation, including the harshly suppressed “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests of 2022–2023. At 86, his succession was already a concern, but the current war could determine the future of the regime—and his personal survival.
A senior U.S. official recently revealed that President Donald Trump opposed an Israeli plan to assassinate Khamenei, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu on Monday declared that killing the Supreme Leader would end the conflict.
Internal Fragmentation and Elite Competition
According to Arash Azizi, a Boston University researcher:“Khamenei is in the twilight of his reign and no longer controls much of Iran’s day-to-day leadership, which has fragmented among competing factions.”
The war, he added, is accelerating the fragmentation that was already underway.
A Self-Inflicted Dilemma
The assassinations of top Iranian commanders, including the Chief of Staff and IRGC leaders, have exposed Israel’s deep intelligence reach and raised the possibility that Netanyahu might be considering targeting Khamenei directly.
Khamenei, who hasn’t traveled abroad since 1989, is surrounded by intense security, but experts say regime change efforts—whether via internal coup support or targeted assassinations—may already be in motion.
According to Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment:“Khamenei is now dealing with a crisis he created. He lacks the physical and cognitive clarity to lead Iran through a technologically advanced war.”
A weak response to Israel would erode his authority, while a strong one might risk regime collapse.
A Strategic Miscalculation
Jason Brodsky, policy director at United Against Nuclear Iran, argued that Khamenei’s decades-long strategy of keeping conflict away from Iran’s borders has failed:“Khamenei has made a major miscalculation. Today’s scale of attacks is far beyond anything Iran has faced since the early 1980s.”
He drew parallels with the chaos of post-revolutionary Iran, when a 1981 assassination attempt nearly killed Khamenei.
Now, however, the pace and intensity of conflict threaten to overwhelm Tehran’s capacity to respond.
Domestic Pressure Mounting
The Israeli strikes, which reportedly preceded a new round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, have caught Iran off guard. Some Persian-language outlets have broadcast anti-Khamenei chants, but no mass protests have been reported so far.
Analyst Holly Dagres warned that while many Iranians want regime change, most are not willing to pay the price of blood and war, making any foreign-imposed shift in power deeply controversial.
Netanyahu: “We Do What We Must”
Speaking to Fox News, Netanyahu hinted that Israeli strikes could eventually result in regime change, though he emphasized the Iranian people should lead it:“That could be the outcome. The regime is very weak. I believe 80% of the people would oust these wicked clerics.”
When asked if there really was an Israeli plan to assassinate Khamenei that was blocked by the U.S., he replied:“We do what we must—and I believe the U.S. knows that’s in their interest too.”
Still, experts cautioned against believing a popular uprising is imminent.
“The idea that a mass protest will lead to regime change or elevate an exiled opposition leader is not grounded in reality,” said Azizi.
Conclusion: A Tipping Point for Iran
As Israeli attacks increase and internal leadership fragments, Khamenei stands at the center of Iran’s greatest test since 1979.
Whether through military collapse, internal revolt, or political transition, the fate of the Islamic Republic may now hinge on decisions made in the days ahead.
