Can Israel Strike Iran Alone? Questions Rise Amid Reduced U.S. Military Presence
With U.S. and European forces largely withdrawn from the region, analysts warn an Israeli attack on Iran could trigger massive retaliation and destabilize the Middle East.
Watan-Speculation is mounting about the possibility of an Israeli military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. This comes at a time when U.S. and European military presence in the Middle East has significantly declined compared to last year, raising questions about the feasibility and consequences of such a move.
Available data suggest a growing likelihood of an Israeli strike. One key indicator is a statement made this Thursday by a senior Iranian official to Reuters, revealing that a friendly state had warned Tehran of a potential military attack on its nuclear infrastructure. Meanwhile, leading U.S. media outlets like The New York Times and CNN have reported tensions between President Donald Trump’s administration and Israel over the utility and timing of such a strike—particularly as Washington and Tehran are set to resume nuclear talks this Sunday in Oman.
Last October, Washington leaked documents about Israeli preparations to strike Iran, which many experts interpreted as a signal that the U.S. opposes the move out of concern for regional repercussions.
Can Israel Act Alone?
The key question remains: Can Israel carry out a strike independently and withstand Iran’s retaliation? Despite its military superiority, Israel depends heavily on U.S. and Western military support in the event of a broad Iranian counterattack.
During the massive Iranian missile and drone barrage on April 13–14, 2024, it was Western forces—primarily the U.S. Navy, alongside French, German, and British warships—that intercepted the majority of the 300 missiles and over 150 drones fired by Iran. The Pentagon deployed high-end defense systems like THAAD and Aegis to neutralize the threat.
The Western military deployment in 2024 was the largest since the Iraq War in 2003, including two U.S. aircraft carriers, more than six destroyers, and submarines stationed across the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, and Eastern Mediterranean.
However, this has changed dramatically. Following a U.S.-Yemen agreement last month, Western naval presence in the region has declined sharply. According to a map published Monday by the U.S. Naval Institute, only the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson remains stationed in the Arabian Sea, accompanied by the guided missile cruiser USS Princeton (CG-59) and two destroyers: USS Sterett (DDG-104) and USS William P. Lawrence (DDG-110). There are currently no large U.S. or European warships in the Red Sea or Eastern Mediterranean.
Israel Faces Greater Risk
With reduced regional naval presence, any escalation—such as a unilateral Israeli strike followed by Iranian retaliation—would place enormous pressure on Israel’s Iron Dome system. Designed primarily for short- and medium-range rockets, the system may not suffice in intercepting waves of long-range or precision missiles.
Unlike April 2024, when Western forces played a decisive role in shielding Israel, a future scenario could see Israel confronting Iran largely on its own.
While Israel has the capacity to carry out such an attack, success is far from guaranteed. Iran’s nuclear facilities are deeply fortified and geographically dispersed. Retaliation would likely be swift and intense. Even with external support, an Israeli strike would be a high-risk strategic gamble with possible spillover into the Gulf and Eastern Mediterranean.
Ultimately, the events of April 13–14, 2025—when joint deterrence and defense minimized damage and prevented escalation—cast serious doubt on Israel’s ability to replicate such an outcome without Western backing in any future conflict.
