Is France Ready to Recognize Palestine? Macron Weighs a Historic Shift Amid War in Gaza
French President Emmanuel Macron is leaning toward recognizing a Palestinian state, but timing, Western divisions, and Israeli pressure complicate the path forward.
Watan-French President Emmanuel Macron is leaning toward recognizing the State of Palestine, but diplomats and experts warn that the move may be premature and ineffective in pressuring Israel to pursue a peace agreement with the Palestinians.
They also caution that such a move could deepen Western divisions—not only within an already fractured European Union but also with the United States, Israel’s closest ally.
Observers say that if recognition is to be more than a symbolic gesture, it must be accompanied by other actions, such as sanctions and trade bans.
If Macron proceeds, France—home to the largest populations of both Jews and Muslims in Europe—would become the first heavyweight Western nation to recognize Palestine, giving a major boost to an initiative led so far by smaller countries typically critical of Israel.
France Weighs Landmark Recognition of Palestine Ahead of June UN Summit
Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide told Reuters: “If France takes this step, many other (European) countries will follow.”
Macron’s position has shifted notably amid intensified Israeli attacks on Gaza and escalating settler violence in the West Bank. A growing sense in Paris suggests urgent action is needed to prevent the two-state solution from vanishing entirely.
Anne-Claire Legendre, Macron’s Middle East adviser, told delegates at a preparatory meeting in New York on May 23: “We must move from words to action. Given the situation on the ground, it’s essential to preserve the prospect of a Palestinian state and take irreversible steps.”
Diplomats note that although Macron currently supports the initiative, no final decision has been made—and developments such as a potential ceasefire in Gaza before mid-June could affect the outcome.
Still, Macron’s diplomats are working to ensure the best conditions for such a decision, including evaluations on reforming the Palestinian Authority, disarming Hamas, and planning for postwar reconstruction.
Israeli Pressure
Israeli officials have spent months lobbying against what some have called a “diplomatic nuclear bomb” for bilateral relations.
The notion that France—a G7 member and one of Israel’s closest allies—could recognize Palestine is likely to infuriate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Earlier this month, when France joined the UK and Canada in stating their willingness to consider concrete measures against Israel and affirming their commitment to recognizing Palestine, Netanyahu harshly criticized the three leaders, accusing them of antisemitism.
Diplomats say that Canada and the UK are currently less enthusiastic about recognition, prioritizing impactful action on the ground—possibly tempering Macron’s ambitions.
Two informed sources noted that Israel’s warnings to France have included threats of reduced intelligence sharing, obstruction of French regional initiatives, and even hints of annexing parts of the West Bank. However, such steps are unlikely due to the potentially severe international backlash—Israel’s worst fear being deepened isolation, especially from Europe, its main trading partner.
Tamir Hayman, head of the Institute for National Security Studies in Israel, told Reuters: “The reaction (in Israel) would be negative on all levels,” adding that the move would fuel far-right rhetoric claiming the world is against Israel and “ultimately be pointless.”
France’s Evolving Stance
Macron strongly supported Israel after Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack—which, according to Israeli sources, killed 1,200 people and resulted in 250 hostages. However, as Palestinian deaths in Gaza surpassed 50,000, according to health authorities, Macron gradually shifted his tone.
In an April 9 interview, he said: “We need to move toward recognition. In the coming months, we will do so.”
Even then, Macron appeared hesitant—setting vague conditions and stating his intention to build momentum with supportive allies while encouraging Islamic countries to recognize Israel.
But so far, there is no indication that new Arab or Islamic states are ready to normalize relations with Israel.
Saudi Arabia—the ultimate normalization prize—is unwilling to make any moves amid widespread outrage across the Muslim world over the war in Gaza.
On May 24, Manal Radwan, adviser to the Saudi foreign minister, said in New York: “Peace in the region begins with recognizing the State of Palestine—not as a symbolic gesture, but as a strategic necessity.” She made no mention of recognizing Israel.
Critics of Macron argue that recognition should come only as part of negotiated two-state solution talks, not before—and warn that premature moves may weaken Palestinian incentives to engage.
Reflecting EU divisions, a European diplomat said: “From our point of view, recognition wouldn’t be helpful now and won’t drive further efforts within member states.”
Others argue recognition must be coupled with broader measures—such as an EU-wide ban on trade with illegal Israeli settlements and targeted sanctions on Israeli officials.
French officials respond that they won’t be swayed by criticism or Israeli pressure.
A senior French official told Reuters: “If there’s ever been a moment in history to recognize a Palestinian state—even symbolically—this is probably it,” adding that Macron may also be motivated by the desire to leave a historic legacy before his term ends in 2027.
