UAE Quietly Reasserts Influence in Libya Through Local Proxies and Strategic Patience
Behind the scenes, the UAE shifts from direct intervention to subtle maneuvering in Libya, leveraging religious networks, economic interests, and regional realignments.
Watan-As Libya continues to shift on volatile political sands, the United Arab Emirates appears to be quietly repositioning itself within the Libyan landscape—present but without fanfare.
There is no overt public presence or blatant intervention as in previous years, but on-the-ground indicators reveal a calculated return through local tools and proxies, ensuring Abu Dhabi’s enduring influence without the cost of overt alignment.
Historically, the UAE’s role in Libya was strongly linked to its support for retired General Khalifa Haftar—militarily and diplomatically. Although its role waned after Haftar’s failed assault on Tripoli in 2019–2020, analysts suggest that the UAE never truly withdrew but rather recalibrated its approach.
A researcher specializing in Libyan affairs commented: “The UAE doesn’t start fires, but it knows how to fan the flames. It invests in chaos and skillfully turns it into strategic leverage, whether in Libya or elsewhere in the Arab world.”
Tools of Influence: From Salafi Networks to Economic Ties
The clearest sign of the UAE’s repositioning lies in its reactivation of effective yet discreet local actors.
At the forefront are the Salafi-Madkhali movements, which outwardly display loyalty to authorities in Tripoli or the east but maintain quiet lines of communication with backers in Abu Dhabi. These groups are waiting for the right moment to play decisive roles in reshaping the balance of power.
Additionally, there are economic networks and political figures who have maintained strong ties with Emirati decision-makers—even if they previously disagreed with Haftar’s project. These networks never truly left the scene and now serve as background bridges for reviving Emirati influence with greater flexibility.
From Direct Action to “Engineering Outcomes”
Unlike past phases, Abu Dhabi is now pursuing a more cost-effective and shrewd approach. Instead of initiating events, it focuses on influencing their outcomes.
Every shift in power dynamics within Tripoli, or among rival military factions across Libya, is seen by the UAE as an opportunity to subtly engineer results that serve its strategic interests.
A former Libyan diplomat remarked: “The UAE understands that staying out of the spotlight protects its interests. It prefers pulling strings behind the scenes—whether by backing specific security or economic players, or through developmental initiatives that mask deeper political and security realignments.”
Regional Dimensions: Libya and the Abraham Accords
The UAE’s activity in Libya cannot be separated from its wider regional vision, particularly its push for the Abraham Accords, which advances through economic and security corridors.
Libya serves a dual strategic role in this context:
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Security: To contain Turkish and Qatari influence in western Libya.
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Economic: To invest in reconstruction and secure control over ports and trade routes.
Between Illusion of Withdrawal and Reality of Repositioning
While the UAE’s visible military presence in Libya has decreased, any claim of full withdrawal is exaggerated. What is unfolding is a repositioning based on more adaptable formulas:
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Reducing military and political exposure
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Expanding influence through local agents
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Exploiting political fragmentation to secure a long-term foothold
A well-informed political analyst concluded: “The UAE’s hands are not absent from the Libyan scene. It may no longer engage in direct actions, but it is firmly embedded in reaction—and knows how to engineer outcomes to its advantage.”
